NFL Week 14 Review: Fantasy Crib Notes

We’re now 14 weeks deep in the NFL season, and yet there are still unpredictable occurrences and things being learned. Perhaps that unpredictability is best exemplified in the Panthers going into New Orleans and rolling over the Saints. The learnings, from a fantasy perspective, are outlined below.

NFL Week 14 Review: Lesson One

Credit Jonathan Stewart for his strong game against the Saints but don’t forget to blame the defense while you’re at it (Photo: Stacy Revere/Getty Images North America).

The chief lesson of Week 14 absolutely has to be just how shoddy the New Orleans rushing defense is. I won’t call it a learning per se because I’ve been railing on any Saints opponent as a must start for a number of weeks including Jonathan Stewart this week.

With DeAngelo Williams out of the lineup, Stewart was primed for a big day as much for the opportunity as the opponent. Sure, the back deserves a little credit but I’m treating today as a testament to the exploit-ability of the Saints run D as much as I am any kind of a credit to Stewart. You’ll want him on your roster if DeAngelo Williams is unavailable again and contests against Tampa Bay and Cleveland are far from intimidating (both for fantasy purposes and for Carolina’s slim playoff hopes), but my focus is on the Saints.

All told, Stewart ran for 159 yards on 20 carries, including a 69 yard touchdown and could have had more if he’d been able to get free while the Panthers were in clock killing mode. This Saints D has now allowed 600+ total yards to the top-producing back on each team against them over the last three weeks and gave up 248 total yards to opposing backs this week with Cam Newton adding an additional 82 yards on the ground.

The Saints were awful in all phases on Sunday, but struggled particularly against the run and have done so for most of the season. Stewart is a player of intrigue in a soft matchup against Tampa Bay next week, but moreover the Saints remain a team against which you have to start your backs. With Matt Forte in Week 15 you were doing that anyway. In Week 16, though, Steven Jackson receives a significant boost in value. He’s had his moments in 2014 but has never been viewed as a solid RB2 start. That changes against the Saints in your fantasy championship. As I hope you did with Stewart this week, use Jackson with confidence in an NFC South battle that could still decide the division.

NFL Week 14 Review: Lesson Two

Your burners are going to excel against the New York Jets. Whether it was Charles Johnson in the opening frame or Jarius Wright to close the game, two big plays showed us why starting speedy wide receivers against the Jets is a wide idea. The Jets came into the game having given up 11 pass plays of more than 40 yards this season and gave up two more this week, both of them for TDs. All told, Wright and Johnson produced 226 yards and two scores on eight receptions (13 targets). Johnson actually would have scored twice himself if not for a goal line fumble.

He started at X last week as well, and is the clear preferred option in Minnesota’s passing game but with the Lions and Dolphins left on the schedule he seems unlikely to make an impact the rest of the way. New York has been consistently beat both over the top and by speedy receivers on screen routes this season. The Vikings had one TD of each variety this week and New York’s undermanned secondary draws Tennessee and New England to close the season. Interestingly, neither team boasts a fantasy relevant player with Johnson’s quick twitch profile, but I’ll have plenty of interest in Brandon LaFell in Week 16 and if Kendall Wright makes his return next week, he has the quicks to exploit this matchup. Note: Wright is likely to be playing with Jake Locker if he goes, with Zach Mettenberger taking a blow to the shoulder again this week.

NFL Week 14 Review: Lesson Three

Nevermind the fantasy debacle that was Josh Gordon‘s reduced snap count and seven targets after massive workloads in his first two weeks, the real travesty was that Cleveland stuck with Brian Hoyer coming into the week and after it became evident that the veteran simply didn’t have it today. Simply put: Brian Hoyer needs to cede to Johnny Manziel. The rookie QB apparently agrees.

With Cleveland’s defense playing well enough to win against one of the best Quarterbacks in the game, it became evident early on that the Browns were leaving points on the board that may come back to haunt them. Indeed, an early interception on a ball forced into tight coverage in the red zone was one very concrete example of points given away but it was not the only case. All told, Hoyer finished 14/31 for 140 (4.5 yards per attempt) and was picked off twice in the fourth game this season in which he completed less than 50 percent of his attempts. Hoyer now has seven interceptions over his last three games and again, in a must win game he really dropped the ball for Cleveland who played well enough to win in all other phases.

With Pittsburgh and Baltimore winning today (and the Bengals losing, mind you) the road to the playoffs is all but closed for Cleveland so it stands to reason we’ll see Johnny Football this week… a week too late.

Big Ben and co. just rolled up serious yards on the Bengals, but, all told it will be a tough fantasy matchup in Manziel’s debut but his legs make him a player of interest if he starts.

NFL Week 14 Review: Lesson Four

The best thing Latavius Murray did against the 49ers? Handle the ball (Photo: Brian Bahr/Getty Images North America).

The chains have come off Latavius Murray. His final stat line won’t wow you, but his workload should excite anyone with shares. Murray, reportedly was to be eased into a bigger role but he handled 25 touches (85 total yards) against the 49ers. San Francisco, of course, has a strong defensive front, and the relatively low total yardage output shouldn’t trouble anyone… the biggest and best news here is that he handled a ton of work and came out no worse for wear.

Murray appears set to be the only back of relevance for the Oakland offense against the Chiefs in Week 15. That’s right, a KC team against whom he took two balls to the house on Thursday Night two weeks ago with four touches and that has allowed 4.9 YPC on the season. Kerwyn Williams, a practice squader until a few days ago, just went for 100 yards on the Chiefs. If we can assume 20 touches for Murray again next week, he could be flirt with RB1 numbers. In Week 16, the sledding gets much tougher against Buffalo but for one week at least owners can count on Murray and use him with confidence after he relegated Darren McFadden (four carries) to footnote status.

NFL Week 14 Review: Additional Notes

A week after failing to target Jimmy Graham at all against Pittsburgh, Drew Brees put the ball in his direction 11 times… producing three catches. Those 11 balls thrown to Graham left little work for New Orleans’ receivers and impacted the value of Kenny Stills‘ significantly. With poor production, and Graham evidently still limited by a shoulder injury, one wonders how the strategy changes in Week 15.
Indianapolis didn’t carry the ball a whole lot, but when they did, Trent Richardson split the work evenly with Boom Herron. Herron again was more effective and added four catches on seven targets though. Similarly, Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell split 29 carries evenly.
Jordan Cameron led the Browns in receiving yards in his return to the lineup and looked effective enough. Moreso than Josh Gordon who was targeted seven times and made two catches. I expected an outing more in line with TY Hilton‘s 19 target day, particularly with Vontae Davis out of the lineup, but evidently a Browns staff that saw fit to stick with Hoyer also thought that reducing Gordon’s snaps was the path to victory. For Hilton, I’m not surprised at his massive target load in a game that Indianapolis trailed the whole way. Hilton’s skills with the ball in the air are pretty impressive. He’s frequently making adjustments on Andrew Luck passes and exhibited great body control on an underthrown Andrew Luck pass to make the catch and find his way into the endzone. On a day when nothing went right for the Indianapolis offense, Hilton was heavily targeted and showed why he had his QB’s trust.
Shonn Greene was a healthy scratch but Bishop Sankey could not take advantage of his absence. Sankey’s nine carries in a blow out loss were not a positive development, but, you’ll want to keep an eye on Greene’s status in Week 15. Sankey won’t have much use against the Jets but could be a sneaky play in a game that you’d expect Tennessee to keep close against Jacksonville assuming he has the backfield to himself. After this week, you’re probably wise to keep him reserved if he’s even on your roster but a more impressive matchup looms.
Ryan Fitzpatrick threw just 19 passes in victory over Jacksonville so you can’t read a whole lot into the fantasy output of anyone on their offense, but you’ll certainly want to keep an eye on DeAndre Hopkins if Andre Johnson ends up missing time with his concussion. With the Colts and Ravens on schedule, Hopkins has a pair of solid WR matchups to close the season.
Marqise Lee didn’t see any use in the second half, a shame given his strong output early against Houston. He led (tied) Jags’ WRs in receptions and yards for the third straight week though.
I’ve spent a lot of time noting that Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers’ offense had thrown for multiple TDs just once on the road this season and were averaging a score a game through the air. Naturally, Ben and his pass catchers produced 350 yards receiving and three scores. The most notable WR of the day was Martavis Bryant who rebounded from a quiet fantasy Week 13 in a big way. He finished with six targets and four catches for 109 yards though all of his fantasy scoring came on a 94 yard score with eight minutes left. That TD, on which Bryant exhibited great speed getting behind the secondary and burst toward a ball which appeared to have been overthrown, represents both Bryan’s massive upside and low floor in any given week. He’s got the ability to make the big play, but if that ball hits the ground it would have been another disappointing performance. He’ll be worth a look against Atlanta’s secondary next week.
- I suppose Le’Veon Bell is worth a note, too. Bell was a monster for the third straight week, topping 30 touches again as he has in every game since LeGarrette Blount‘s departure (ok, it started at 29). There isn’t much more that needs saying… watch the tape, and you’ll see a back who has held up to huge workload as well as anyone could imagine and faces Atlanta and Kansas City to close the fantasy season. He’s the #1 back the rest of the way.
The Rams didn’t have to pass a whole lot this week, so the numbers will need to be assessed with a grain of salt but it was interesting that Stedman Bailey was unused in the first half before appearing on the box score with two catches on two targets in the second. I’ve said throughout the season that it was impossible to trust any of their pass catchers given the way that the team distributed the ball, but I’ll admit to having caught a bit of Bailey fever heading into this week. With Arizona up next (and even with the Giants to close) you’re unlikely to see me suffering from that same illusion next week.
Pierre Garcon produced 95 yards on 11 targets (nine catches) against St. Louis on a day when the rest of the offense (including Colt McCoy, who Jay Gruden reportedly was thinking of building an offense around) which makes you wonder why they haven’t bothered engaging Garcon all year. I’d expect things to shift away from him again next week assuming DeSean Jackson returns to the lineup.
Calvin Johnson has three touchdowns and 304 yards over his last two weeks, heating up at the right time for fantasy owners. The Vikings and Bears are up next, neither of which is a particularly pleasant match but neither of which should present much difficulty for Megatron who is really playing at his best in recent weeks.
Russell Wilson had a nice day throwing the football against an Eagles D that managed to get a lot of pressure. Wilson’s ability to extend a play was evident against the Eagles, and his mobility translated to the run game as well. Wilson topped 30 yards rushing again this week (48 and a touchdown), as he has in every game since October 12. The 49ers and Cardinals present challenges over the remainder of the fantasy season but his ability on the ground should keep Wilson useful.
Jeremy Maclin‘s early TD helped his final fantasy line, but no Eagle had more than three catches against a Seahawks D that had constant pressure on Sanchez and played tight in coverage as usual as well. I was critical of the Seattle defense early in the season but they are fully healthy right now and playing in championship form. As noted with Wilson, the Seahawks play San Francisco and Arizona over the next two weeks so you may not be starting any receivers anyway, but certainly you’ll want to keep the opponent in mind when setting your lineups.
The Buffalo/Denver game was full of surprises. There was Peyton Manning‘s disappointing fantasy day (0 TDs, 173 yards, two picks) in which he really didn’t look all that impressive. The opponent was tough, and I’m not just jumping on the narrative but I continue to hold that now is not his best time of year and the stats certainly have borne that out over the last few weeks. Wherever you stand on the cold weather debate with Manning, owners will be heartened to know that they play on the road at San Diego and Cincinnati (cold enough, but could be worse) to close the year, so your shares in Manning and the Denver offense should be just fine. Let’s not overreact to this week’s result. Beyond that, that Kyle Orton threw for 351 yards and just 36 of them went to the team’s most productive receiver of the last few weeks (Robert Woods) was shocking. Sammy Watkins really picked up his game this week, and appears to be in better health after a few quiet weeks following a groin injury. The Bills will have to throw a lot against Green Bay next week as well.
With Andre Ellington sidelined, Kerwynn Williams dominated the second half workload and significantly out-touched Stepfan Taylor overall. Taylor is not a special back, so it isn’t as if the team will be married to him as the lead ball carrier heading into next weekend with Ellington placed on IR. Still, with St. Louis and Seattle on the ROS schedule I’m not sure you should be moved to add Ellington.
Newly signed Jason Avant (7/5/64) led Kansas City WRs in receiving by a significant margin… it wasn’t significant enough to register on your fantasy radar, but, Oakland and Pittsburgh are soft enough matchups for the really desperate.
Colin Kaepernick targeted Michael Crabtree 14 times against Oakland, but the pair produced just 56 yards (nine catches), two more than Anquan Boldin. Blech. Kaepernick has completed over 60% of his passes once in his last five games and can’t be trusted for his own fantasy purposes. To reiterate from above, he can’t be trusted to produce anything with his receivers next week either. The Seahawks have given up 20 points combined in their last three games.